Beef price trajectory is upwards, but feeders wary of cost rise

This is the opinion of Andrew Talbot, the general manager of Killara Feedlot, Quirindi who said feeders were keeping a mindful eye on market prices.

However, Mr Talbot said feeders were mindful of forecasts of grain price rises between $50 and $70 a tonne will keep lot feeders mindful in the short and medium term.

"We're seeing barley and sorghum expected to rise $50 to $70 a tonne, with more rise to come later on," he said.

He said more buyers of Australian beef are coming back into the market.

"But everyone is being mindful that we don't want a repeat of an uncompetitive market."

However, Mr Talbot is also optimistic about a stronger beef market in the future.

"Everyone would agree that in the medium term, the trajectory is up, no doubt," he said.

Ben Lehman, Lehman Stock and Property, Inverell, shares this optimistic outlook, pointing to the widespread nature of rainfall through Queensland and the north of NSW.

At Inverell's recent feature weaner sale, steer prices held firm as local buyers with rapidly growing oat crops moved back into the market.

"Feeder steers (prices) are okay," Mr Lehman said, "but the fluctuations have been enormous."

He said six weeks ago, there was less confidence among backgrounders as winter drops were slow to establish.

Broun & Co Grain Traders' owner and managing director, Charlie Coventry, Armidale, says there is an indication of an upward trend in grain prices in the longer term.

But Mr Coventry believes a good NSW planting will keep prices lower than some forecasts.

He said last year, in the middle of harvest, barley prices were low enough in Victoria to encourage shipping all the way up to Queensland.

"But that was a market over-reaction and the drawing arc from Queensland is now finding sufficient supply in Northern and Central NSW, " he said.

"We're hoping for everyone's benefit there will be a good harvest in NSW at the end of the year, especially in the North, which would ensure an increase in supply in closer proximity to the Queensland feedlot demand."

Luke Whitty from Kevin Miller, Whitty, Lennon and Company, Forbes, said the strength of the season in the Central West would encourage prices for feeder steers and heifers.

"It looks like the job is improving," Mr Whitty said. "We will see some better prices from the feedlots and forward contracts.

"If we could have a better season in the Riverina and Victoria, we would have greater improvement all around," he said.

Mr Whitty said this week, price improvements of 15 cents a kilogram had been made to 20c/kg for steers and 30c/kg for heifers.

"There is light at the end of the tunnel."

He said crop planting in his region had been in full swing and this will encourage feeders.

"There's a lot of crop in, but south of West Wyalong, it starts to thin out. Wagga and southwards is pretty dry.

Barraba Stock and Crop principal Simon Koopman has just returned from an annual fishing trip to Boorooloola in the Northern Territory.

"It's amazing, it's green from Barraba to Boorooloola," he said. "I've been going up there for years and it's the best I've ever seen."

Mr Koopman said producers in the Barraba district were enjoying good oat drops with timely rainfalls.

"The oats rain has come at just the right time," he said.

Phillip Frame, Frame Rural Inverell marketed about 150 Angus steers for Moree's George Boland with Tara, Qld, stock agency, Ray White, buying a pen of 62, averaging 255kg, at the top rate of 454c/kg, to return $1161 to the vendor.

Mr Frame said there was always demand for quality-bred steers.