Australia's cattle herd will continue to grow this year, resulting in a high supply of both young cattle and finished weight animals to market well into 2024.
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This is according to the latest Cattle Industry Projections update from Meat & Livestock Australia, which notes that the national cattle herd will reach its highest level since 2014 at 28.7m head.
Stocking rates in southern Australia, particularly in NSW, are at levels well above long-term averages.
Northern Australia will develop its herd rebuild on the back of a very strong wet season generally.
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Senior market information analyst at MLA, Ripley Atkinson said a continuation of female retention in northern Australia would ensure the rebuild for this region continued, while the breeding herd in southern Australia would reach levels above long-term averages in 2023.
"The longer-term outlook of higher supply is ensured, with the above-average marking rates continuing despite a forecast return to average or below-average seasonal conditions," Mr Atkinson said.
"The genetic investment producers have made in building a productive, fertile breeding herd during the past three years will contribute significantly to delivering continued high supplies of young cattle into 2024."
Beef production is forecast to strongly increase this year as a result of improvements in processing capacity so far in 2023, higher slaughter volumes and historically elevated carcase weights.
Slaughter for 2023 is forecast to reach 6.95 million head, a revision upwards of 5 per cent or 325,000 head on MLA's January figures.
Driving the higher volume this year will be:
- Strong numbers of grassfed steer turn-off from key production regions of Queensland, including the Channel Country.
- Significantly higher numbers of cast-for-age cows as numbers of breeding females on-farm allow the turn-off of older stock.
"Processors are continuing to manage higher supplies of slaughter weight stock and this trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the year," Mr Atkinson said.
"So far in 2023, the cattle market has operated as it typically does throughout the first six months of the year," Mr Atkinson said.
"It's not uncommon for higher turn-off of stock leading into winter to place downward pressure on price.
"However, the previous three years have been the exception due to the rebuild following years of drought, and the impacts of COVID.
"In considering these major events, it is important to acknowledge these years were outliers when it comes to examining trends in cattle prices."
