Graziers must be prepared for goat price downturn to continue through the first half of 2023 says industry pioneer

"The market has corrected badly," he said.

What used to bring $10 a kilogram (carcase weight) at its peak three years ago and remained at $9/kg in July has come back by more than half to between 400c/kg and 500c/kg.

Some accumulators are paying 100c/kg to 150c/kg at the farm gate and there is an assumption goats will be retained in their paddocks for longer, in a bid to ride out the downturn.

"China should buy into this market again when the price comes back," predicted Mr Lynn.

"If they bought now and absorbed that supply the price might not fall any further."

The recently buoyant US market has maintained good prices, with a greater proportion of Hispanics, Muslims, Islanders, Asians and Africans who appreciate goat meat's superiority over mutton in a stew.

"It retains flavour, tenderness and shape during cooking and is not oily," he said.

"Goat meat makes a really good stew and for that reason consumers will pay more for goat than mutton."

While the downturn has pushed prices below what they deserve, Mr Lynn said he expected goat prices to climb back up to land somewhere between mutton and lamb at about 500-600c/kg, which equates to $100 to $120 for a 20kg animal.

Investment in the western districts made while the prices remained strong include exclusion fences, with rangeland herds better able to be managed.

MLA levies on the 20,000 to 30,000 head processed every week equates to around $10,000 or about $500,000 annually to promote the industry, including goat meat sales overseas.

"However, the federal government is in go-slow mode for getting free trade agreements up and running," said Mr Lynn, who pointed to Britain where goat meat demand is enormous.

"Part of the problem is that goat meat is lumped with sheep meat in their bureaucratic category and lamb producers in the UK are no doubt crying for protection.

"There is excellent demand from the Indian market but we still don't have free trade into India.

"We are politically bound to the US and have historically been attracted to their disposable income (identified by the MLA as more than 100m people with more than $35,000 a year to spend freely), but at the moment there's a hiccup in their economy and potentially those who enjoy goat the most may be the least able to afford it.

"It comes back to the old adage that when the US sneezes we catch the cold."

Meanwhile, goat sales to Taiwan, Canada and the Caribbean account for 30pc while Japan is a very small market. Meanwhile all marketing eyes are on China to come back to the bidding rail.

"China has more goats than Australia has sheep but they still have a deficit," Mr Lynn says.

The boom in prices that encouraged a new wave of industry investment has come at a price to the consumer, with traditional buyers looking for cheaper alternatives.

Now with prices returning to those paid in 2016 there is the assumption that returning buyers will once again come back to goat, but unfortunately there will be a time lag, advises Mr Lynn.

However, with graziers deciding to retain nannies that have in this current wet season been "breeding like buggery", the goat population is escalating and graziers will have no choice but to turn off animals.

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