Nationals leadership spill a question of party's future direction

It's tradition for the party to declare all leadership positions vacant after each election. Current leader Barnaby Joyce is trying to spin the election result as a win in a difficult time, with the Nationals holding all their seats and gaining a senator.

However, 12 of the Nationals 16 MPs (75pc) suffered a negative swing in their primary vote, four once safe seats are now marginal (Nicholls, Flynn, Capricornia and Cowper), and the additional Senator is because under the Coalition agreement it was the Nationals turn for the second spot on the Senate ticket.

A big part of Mr Joyce's leadership pitch to the party room was his ability to gain more seats, but the party failed in the two they targeted, Hunter and Lingiari (where the party's vote under the Country Liberals went backwards). Mr Joyce put an asterisk next to the losses, claiming the Nationals were in the box seat to swing them next election.

But the Nationals could have trouble retaining their once-safe but now-marginal seats, let alone winning new ones. Many Liberals blame part of the nationwide swing against them on the Nationals anti-climate stance, with several successful independents using variations of the line "a vote for moderate Liberals is vote for Barnaby Joyce".

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Former deputy prime minister Michael McCormack has refused to rule out another leadership tilt, and took a jab at Mr Joyce by pointing out there were "no campaigns against my name and my reputation in inner-city seats".

Gippsland MP Darren Chester, one of the few Nationals to see an uptick in votes, is also considering putting his hand up. Mr Chester said he was working with other moderates to influence the future direction of the party.

"I have been encouraged to run for a leadership role by some of my supporters and I will consider it in the days ahead," Mr Chester said.

"We need to unite our party going forward, and attract younger and female voters."

Maranoa MP David Littleproud has long been considered the heir-apparent to the Nationals leadership, and served as the party's deputy leader under Mr Joyce and Mr McCormack.

However, Mr Littleproud is famously patient and if possible, would prefer to take the leadership without dividing the party room. Also, three years as the Opposition's third-in-command, behind the Liberal leader and deputy leader, may not be very appealing.

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The day after the election, Mr Joyce said he was uncommitted to the Nationals leadership. He lost at least three allies due to retirement or Senate ticket relegation, but may have gained the loyalty of incoming MPs Colin Boyce and Andrew Willcox after campaigning hard with them.

Nicholls newcomer Sam Birrell would most likely lean away from Mr Joyce, given the former Deputy Prime Minister's unpopularity in Victoria.

Incoming senator Jacinta Price is politically conservative and Ross Cadell has a long association with Mr Joyce, previously running his electorate campaigns, but neither will get a vote as their term does not start until July 1.

If Mr Joyce doesn't believe he has the numbers, there is a strong chance he'll direct his supporters to back former Resource Minister Keith Pitt, who is ideologically similar to Mr Joyce.

During the spill, the party room will be forced to question what direction the Nationals should go. Mr Joyce has suggested the party could drop its commitment to net zero, a policy Mr Pitt would agree with, which could risk alienating more rural voters who consistently placed climate change among their top election issues.

A recent exit poll conducted by Farmers for Climate Action in three marginal regional NSW seats - Gilmore, Page and Eden-Monaro - found "effective climate change policies" was the most important issue in all three electorates.

The future of the Liberal-Nationals alliance is also the source of speculation. The coalition agreement ends after each election. With sections of both parties unhappy with their counterparts - particularly around the other's climate policy - a formal Coalition agreement may not eventuate for several weeks or even months.